The Elephant in the Room in the “Economy Reopen” Debate
On Mar 13th, a few hours before the US travel ban was put into effect, my wife and I entered the country and we’ve been under the California “stay home” rule ever since. Like all people around the world, we tried to adjust our lifestyle to the new normal. And as I read news and listen to debates regrading “reopening the economy”, I get a sense that most of the debates are — intentionally and unintentionally — ignoring the big elephant in the room: what to do with the elderly!
I’ve been having this debate personally since I arrived in the US on Mar 13th. My mother is 85 years old. She lives in her own house. My wife and I had to make a decision when we arrived: do we stay with her to take care of her during this crisis, or do we keep her “isolated” and stay in our own house? I know many people who are in similar situations — trying to decide what’s best for the family elders.
During the past month, as I kept a close eye on the number of infections in Sonoma County (160 in total as on today), and as we observed the “stay home” order, we concluded that the risk is fairly low that we might — inadvertently — bring COVID-19 to my mother’s house. But as we start relaxing some of these “stay home” rules, this is no longer the case.
I am all for a plan that allows people to get back to some level of normalcy in their lives. But a plan that does not include serious mechanisms and procedures to isolate the elderly and take care of them before a COVID-19 vaccine is introduced is almost certain to be a plan to reduce the number of old people on Earth (you don’t need to be a data scientist to conclude that COVID-19 has a much easier time with seniors by just looking at the data). A plan that does not include serious mechanisms to isolate older seniors is selfish and it is wrong. If you want to know what the outcome of a plan like that would look like, take a look at what’s happening now in Sweden.
So, what can be done? Here is an idea: if you are senior, you should have two choices: A) stay at home alone and sign up for a “COVID-19-free concierge service” which will ensure you will receive all your needs (food, medical, essentials, etc.) at the comfort of your home, or B) join a “COVID-free” nursing home established in your town created by transforming existing elderly homes/communities or creating new make-shift ones. Plan A will be subsidized by government, Plan B will be fully paid by government.
It can be done. And the costs will be significantly lower than the alternative — both in human life AND in financial terms. Would it be cheaper to ensure that the elderly won’t get COVID-19 at all, or take care of them AFTER they get it? The one thing that is certain in all the “economy re-opening” plans is that, sooner than later, a lot of people will get infected — we are simply flattening the curve, NOT reducing the total number of people who will be affected. If I were over 70 years old of age, these plans are no good for me.
